ࡱ> %` bjbj"x"x 2@@\'{vvv^D,RRR8,SV,,B0XFX"hXhXhXY,YY acccccc$$hpYYhXhX4hXhXaaAhX$X 1R645,0pŗThAAlYm({T 6 YYYjYYY,,,D3p;,,,p;,,,  Korea-China FTA as a Catalyst for Fostering the Intra-industry Specialization with Agglomeration Effect Hae-du Hwang, Yonghee Lee and Sungchul Bang* Abstract Previous studies on the FTA between Korea and China argue that technology-intensive manufacturing sectors procure some benefits from the trade creation effect and dynamic one whereas small-and-medium enterprises and agricultural sectors incur some costs of industrial adjustment. This research recapitulates the industrial adjustment policy of Korea by supplementing the agglomeration effect of new economic geography and the new attributes of FTA. The analysis on the trade and investment of manufacturing demonstrates that it may be imperative for Korea to pursue the intra-industry specialization with China by fully taking into account the reduced technology gap. Its policy implications based on the SWOT analysis on automobile and the trade specialization index analysis on ancillary industry comprise the joint operation of human resource development and R&D activities as a means of accruing the cumulative causation effect between market expansion and technology innovation. Keywords: FTA, intra-industry specialization, industrial adjustment policy agglomeration effect, new economic geography JEL codes: F15, L62, O14 ------------------------ * Hae-du Hwang, Professor of Department of International Trade, College of Commerce and Economics and Director of Seoul European Institute, Konkuk University, Phone: 82-2-450-3653, Fax: 82-2-3437-6610, First author, E-mail:  HYPERLINK "mailto:Haedu.Hwang@konkuk.ac.kr" Haedu.Hwang@konkuk.ac.kr; Yong-hi Lee, Visiting Researcher, Seoul European Institute, Second author; Sung-chul Bang, Doctoral Candidate, Department of International Trade, Konkuk University We are grateful for the helpful comments of Dr. Chul Cho of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade on automobile industry. This research is partially funded by the research grant from the Konkuk University. I. Introduction In accordance with the summit agreement between China and Korea in 2004, a joint research on the feasibility study of Korea-China FTA (KCFTA) was launched in 2005. The impact of KCFTA to the Korean economy may outweigh that of Korea-U.S. FTA if one takes into account the fast pace of trade and investment expansions between Korea and China. This paper aims at formulating the industrial adjustment policy of Korea to cope with the intra-industry specialization for launching KCFTA. 1. 1 Trade and Investment Flows between Korea and China China was the largest trade partner of Korea in 2008 as shown in Table 1. Major export items of Korea to China were semiconductors, computers, wireless communication equipments which took about 39 per cent of total exports to China in 2006. Major import items of Korea from China are computers, semiconductors and steel products which took about 35 per cent of total imports from China. As pointed out by Yang and et. al. (2007), most Korean firms have contributed for the export expansion of raw materials and intermediate goods to China. The electric and electronics items, transportation equipments, steel products and leather and footwear goods produced by Korean affiliates in China have shown a high ratio of imported intermediate goods from Korea. But foodstuffs and groceries as well as non-ferrous materials produced by Korean affiliates have exhibited the opposite trend of using relatively high ratio of local content. Chemical products, which heavily depend on the intermediate goods with lower price tags, also exhibit similar patterns of high ratio of local content. [Table 1] Relative Shares of Major Trading Partners of Korea in 2008 ChinaEUUnited StatesJapanTotalExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportBillion US $ 9147695844004643842836104,220435.3Share (%)21.717.713.89.211.08.86.714.0100100Source: Korea International Trade Association, http://kita.net The increasing trend of trade surplus of Korea with China has been slowed down since 2005 as shown in Table 2. The average expansion rates of trade was 36.1 per cent over the period 2002-2004, but it declined to 26.7 per cent in 2005 and further declined to 17.4 per cent in 2006. One noticeable phenomenon was that the growth rates of Korean imports from China overwhelmed those of Korean exports to China since 2005. The subsequent reduction in trade surplus may be derived from the displacement of Korean exports with the Chinese exports and the fast pace of catch-up of China. Korea ranked the fourth position by occupying 4.6 per cent of total exports of China after the United States (19.1 per cent), Hong Kong (15.1 per cent) and Japan (14.0 per cent). It ranked the second post by occupying 10.6 per cent of total Chinese imports in 2007 after Japan. The outbound FDI of Korea to China increased from 0.6 billion US dollars in 2001 to 3.3 billion US dollars in 2006. It has been heavily concentrated on the manufacturing sector and individual FDI are rather small magnitude in amount. The recent development is its increase in the relative share of FDI extended to the service industry whose share reached up to 17.7 per cent of total outbound FDI to China in 2006. [Table 2] Koreas Trade Balance with China (unit: million US dollars) 1990199520002004200520062007Export5859,14418,45549,76361,91569,45981,985Import2,687,40112,79929,58538,64848,57763,028Trade Surplus-1,683-1,7435,65620,17823,26720,90218,957Source: same as Table 1 The outbound FDI of China to Korea had been virtually meager before 2000, but it has been increased at a fast pace since then. Its magnitude had been reached to the amount of 0.6 billion US dollars in 2004 which took account of 9.11 per cent of total inbound FDI into Korea. But it had been reduced to the amount of 0.1 billion US dollars in the following two years. Its cumulative amount recorded 1.6 billion US dollars by the end of 2007 which was approximately 8.5 per cent of the total cumulative amount of inbound FDI into Korea which recorded 18.7 billion US dollars. 1.2 Recent Progress in Launching FTA of China and Korea Both China and Taiwan had belonged to the exceptional cases for not having launched any FTA among those economies whose economic magnitudes are classified within the range of world 30th rankings before their accession to the WTO in 2001. But China pursues FTA with a positive stance since it became the Signatory of WTO (Hwang and Yin, 2008). It has launched FTAs with Hong Kong, Macao, the ASEAN, Chile, Pakistan, New Zealand, Singapore and Peru. It is currently negotiating FTAs with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Australia, Iceland, Norway, South African Customs Union and Costa Rica. It has also launched the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2007 as a collective defense system. China seems to attach more emphasis on the aspect of international relations than economics. Chambers (2005, p. 599) argues that the best explanation on the evolution of the Sino-Thai friendship rests on the desire of both countries to maintain the mutually beneficial partnership, in particular Thailands role as a link or facilitator between the Peoples Republic of China and ASEAN. China has been quite positive in liberalizing the manufacturing sector on which it has strong competitive edges. But it seems to adopt a step-wise approach on the liberalization of service industry despite its recent firm commitment. Korea has launched FTA with Chile, Singapore, the EFTA and the ASEAN and completed FTA negotiation with the United States in April 2007. It finalized the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India in August 2008 and is almost on the verge of finalizing FTA negotiation with the EU. Korea prefers to have a comprehensive FTA which covers not only tariff reductions but also liberalization on service and investment. It also attaches priorities to those nations to which Korea can increase its net exports. II. Previous Studies on the Effect of KCFTA 1. Tariff and Non-tariff Barriers The nominal tariff rate of China in 2006 was 9.8 per cent which was below the corresponding figure of 11.9 per cent of Korea. According to the study done by Yang and his colleagues (2007, pp. 108-112), the adjusted average tariff rates based on import amount between Korea and China in 2006 were 7.29 per cent for Korea and 4.54 per cent for China. The corresponding tariff rates on manufactures were 4.62 per cent for Korea and 4.49 per cent for China respectively. Both nations maintain the tariff escalation structure on the different stages of production. For instance, China levies 7.7 per cent tariff rate on parts or components while imposing 15.0 per cent tariff one on consumer goods. The escalation of adjusted tariff rates implies that Korea exports intermediate goods to China whose tariff rates are lower than Korea whereas China exports consumer goods and agricultural products to Korea whose tariff rates are relatively higher than those of China. The trade-adjusted tariff rates of China have been low because most raw or semi-processed materials imported from Korea are exempted from tariff levies. Furthermore, the system of tariff refund is available when the final Chinese goods are exported to Korea. But the exceptional cases, in which trade-adjusted tariff rates of China are higher than those of Korea, comprise automobile and its ancillary items, cosmetics, non-metallic ores and steel-related products. The trade-adjusted tariff rates on textiles and woven fabrics are relatively high in both countries. China has reinforced a wide range of NTBs such as anti-dumping duties, tariff-rate quotas, the limited import permissions on the automobile and its ancillary items via designated ports, the restrictions on foreign firms which participate on government procurements and exclusive compliances on the domestic medical codes for screening medical equipments. But the AD duties of China have exerted one of the most influential impacts on the manufactures exports from Korea. The litigation of Chinese AD duties on imported items from Korea reached 28 cases of total 47 ones over the period 1997-2006, which recorded about 60 per cent of total Chinese ADs. Most ADs of China on Korean manufactures are heavily concentrated on the petro-chemical products and steel-related ones on which the shares of Korean exports to China to the total world export at the sector specific levels are relatively high. These ratios were about 45.5 per cent and about 32.0 per cent respectively for the petro-chemicals and steel-related products in 2006. 2. Different Assumptions on KCFTA and Their Effects on Macroeconomics Both Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET) adopt the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model for the macroeconomic analysis of KCFTA. The GTAP model is designed for the quantitative analysis for the impact of trade policies from the viewpoint of world economy by making use of GTAP-DB which can accommodate the general equilibrium analysis based on the multi-region and multi-sector model. There are no fundamental differences in their methodologies except for the differences with respect to the data base, the assumptions on the tariff exemptions and the industrial classification. The KIEP research assumes not only the total abolition of tariff barriers in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors but also the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the service sector by substantiating tariff equivalents. The KIET takes more or less the same stance on the tariff removals but it does not cover the possible reduction of non-tariff barriers. The KIEP estimates the effect of actual tariff removal for the year of 2001 whereas the KIET measures the same effect in 2005 for Korea and in 2004 for China. The static analysis of the KIEP forecasts that the GDP will be increased about 2.44 per cent for Korea and 0.40 per cent for China. The corresponding figures of the KIET research are 0.18 per cent and 0.04 per cent respectively. Both researches demonstrate that the KCFTA will bring forth increases in GDP and economic welfare. The estimated economic effect is larger for Korea because the trade dependence ratio of Korea is higher than that of China. The forecasts of the KIEP, which adopt more proactive assumptions on the reduction of trade barriers, are larger than the corresponding ones of the KIET. The dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which reflects the capital accumulation, shows slightly higher growth rates than the projected growth rates in the static CGE model. The growth rates of GDP projected by the KIEP for Korea and China are 3.13 per cent and 0.58 per cent respectively. The corresponding figures of the KIET are 1.08 per cent and 0.18 per cent respectively. 3. Effect of KCFTA on the Manufacturing Sector The share of automobile, electronics, general machinery, textile and clothing, steel and petro-chemical products was approximately 77 per cent of total Korean exports in 2007. The corresponding figure for China was about 67 per cent. For instance, the export amount of Korean petro-chemical items to China was 8.07 billion US dollars in 2006 whose relative share was about 45.5 per cent of total petro-chemical exports of Korea. The share of manufacturing sector to GNP of Korea increased from 23.7 per cent to 24.8 per cent and that of China increased from 44.8 per cent to 48.6 per cent over the period 2002-2007. The output of Chinese steel industry takes account of 30.9 per cent of world output and 7.5 per cent of world exports in 2005 (IISI, 2006). The Chinese steel industry has procured price competitiveness on ordinary products by making use of the largest capacity in the world since 1996. A substantial part of Korean exports of steel products to China is used for the processed trade whose share is about 56.1 per cent whereas the corresponding share of exports to the Chinese domestic market is about 39.9 per cent in 2007. The Korean exports of steel products are expected to be increased if the KCFTA is launched. But there emerge three detrimental factors on this mega-trend. One factor is the rapid pace of technology catch-up of China which may reduce its manufactures imports from Korea. Another one is the relatively high trade-adjusted average tariff rates of Korea as compared to those of China. The Chinese exports of manufactures to Korea are expected to be increased with a faster pace than those of Korea to China. The last one may be the relatively high growth rates of China which bring forth the parallel enhancement of competitive edges by realizing incessant flows of income for new investment for production capacity, R&D and marketing strategy. The growth rates of China since the global financial crisis in 2008 declined below the two digit numbers per annum. But its reduced growth rates of 9.0 per cent per annum in 2008 are still far above the corresponding figure of 1.5 per cent of industrialized countries. The expanding domestic market boosted by these high growth rates, which keeps a certain distance from credit crunch, also breeds vitality to the Chinese economy. It may be a due time for Korea to have a cool contemplation on the overall configuration how to formulate its corporate strategy and public policy to cope with the dynamic challenge from China. 4. Effect of KCFTA on the Agriculture, Service and Investment Activities The agricultural sector belongs to one of those sectors which may incur enormous adjustment costs caused by the launch of KCFTA. China had been the largest trade partner of Korea in the realms of agricultural products, livestock items and fisheries whose shares among total Korean imports was about 22.8 per cent in 2005. The proxy respective shares to total Korean imports are 23.8 per cent for agricultural products, 3.0 per cent for livestock items and 39.3 per cent for fishery items. The general price level of agricultural products of China is about 6.5 times lower as compared with that of Korea due to the much cheaper production cost in China. The average production cost of Korean agriculture is approximately 9.7 times expensive than the corresponding cost of China. The launch of KCFTA is expected to bring forth a remarkable progress in the liberalization of the service sector because both governments are pursuing the liberalization procedures in the service sector. The risk factors of FDI will be reduced in parallel with the fortification of liberalization commitment and transparency. This movement will stimulate the trade and investment in the service sector between these two nations which will enhance the competitive edges of the manufacturing sector. If the negative system is adopted in the KCFTA, this will induce Korean firms to expand their entries into the service sector as well as their FDI to China by fully acknowledging the increased legal stability. Lee (2007, p.67) argues that it may be necessary for Korea to facilitate the liberalization of service sector as a means of stimulating the knowledge-intensive service sectors which brings forth high growth rates boosted by spillover effect of leaning-by-doing in high value-added contents. III. New Attributes of FTA and Increased Leverage of Agglomeration Effect 1. New Attributes of FTA A comprehensive multilateral norm, which can govern the FDI, is still unavailable. The principles related with the investment transactions initiated by the OECD have been adopted as an alternative of multilateral norms. But the United States maintained the imperative need for the GATT to formulate and implement such a normative criterion on FDI whereas developing countries were rather reluctant to accommodate this proposal. Trade negotiators at the UR have, somehow, achieved a little progress in making international norms within the boundary of the trade-related investment measures (TRIM) by taking into account the sluggish progress on reaching the multilateral agreement of investment (MAI) at the OECD. The TRIM and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) are the very outcomes of such endeavors. Since the collapse of MAI proposed by the OECD in 1998, the development of international norms on FDI can be interpreted as an extension of the liberalization principles of investment flows developed by the OECD. It is noticeable that a substantial part of FDI has been covered by the FTA negotiations due to the limited maneuvering range of the TRIM or GATS of the WTO. Despite its resumption in December 2007, the DDA has been derailed in resolving such pending issues in the agricultural and service sectors. Most industrialized nations put high priorities on the liberalization of the service sector as a means of scooping their shares in the lucrative service market. The United States and the EU are no exceptions on this mega-trend. Beside the addition of investment and service issues, FTA is used as a preemptive entry for accruing the benefits of FTA or a means of sterilizing the benefits of incumbent FTA membership of competing nations. 2. Increased Leverage of Industrial Adjustment and Agglomeration Effect Cowling and Suden (1996, p. 289) point out that European unemployment is partly influenced by the activities of the multinational enterprises (MNEs) if one fully takes into account the increasing dominance and changing patterns of trans-nationally organized production. Under these circumstances, an expansionary demand management policy may successfully reduce the unemployment rates in the short run, but it does not provide any viable long-term solution. Neither will the traditional supply-side policies such as organizational reshuffling or technological innovation. It may be rather imperative to address the unemployment issue from the viewpoint of strategic approach of shaping a new configuration on the industrial structure by taking into account the technology map and marketing strategy of MNEs. Previous studies on the Korea-US FTA and KCFTA attach prime importance to the welfare gains. The industrial adjustment process has been treated with secondary one. But the new economic geography (NEG) sheds light on the critical importance of industrial adjustment as a means of achieving the intra-industry specialization. It may be a due time for Korean entrepreneurs and policy-makers to formulate the corporate strategy and public policy in order to capture a pivotal momentum for realizing the synergistic effect of technology innovation and global marketing. The NEG puts forward the importance of agglomeration effect by pointing out the fortified competitive edges on the spatial basis such as the Silicon Valley for IT industry, the Northern Italy for fashion industry and the borders between Germany and Switzerland for pharmaceutical industry. It is different from the conventional or alternative trade theory, such as the Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory or the intra-industry trade one, by emphasizing the cumulative causation effect between technology innovation and market expansion in the context of making use of the spillover effect of spatial factors such as geographical advantage, quality of migrant workers and agglomeration of economic activities. Duranton and Storper (2006) posit that geographers emphasize human diversities, local amenities, firm heterogeneity and location whereas economist stresses technological externalities, linkage effects, technology innovation and market access. The agglomeration effect is mainly derived from the mutual interaction between technology innovation and market expansion by making use of the proximities of production locations. Economic activities with certain distances are not covered or discussed in the NEG. But such a gap of spatial distances may be bridged or overcome by operating FDI by making use of the advantages of the organization, the location and the internalization organization. The tacit knowledge network may also work as a facilitator for realizing the agglomeration effect from such FDI. IV. Industrial adjustment Policy of Korea towards the KCFTA Comprehensive Approach and Intra-industry Specialization for Accruing Agglomeration There has emerged a proliferation of FTAs as most nations prefer to launch FTAs which is relatively easy for them to reflect their interests by accommodating the new attributes of FTA. It is the United States which has pushed forward the launch of WTO for the trade liberalization focused on the agricultural and service sectors since the late 1980s. It is the U.S. which initiates the launch of FTAs since the late 1990s in order to expedite trade liberalization on those items with leading global market positioning. It is also the U.S. which firstly implements the bail-out measures for the Big Three since the eruption of global financial crisis in September 2009. The immediate reaction of French government is to increase its ceilings on sales guarantee to the motorcar producers and similar measures have been also adopted by other industrialized and emerging economies. Both Korea and China has joined such tentative schemes for revitalizing the automobile industry by providing cross subsidies. Palley (2006) maintains the shift of the export-oriented industrialization of China toward a domestic-oriented one as a means of alleviating trade imbalance between the U.S. and China. He also adds that the scale of Chinese exports has been contributing to the massive U.S. trade deficit by undermining the U.S. manufacturing industry. The agglomeration effect may become more important in the context of the global imbalance because it has a self-reinforcing mechanism between the procurement of stable market and technology innovation which in its turn may contribute for the alleviation of such an imbalance. Lee (2009, p. 181) points out that the global financial crisis of 2008 differs from the financial crisis of East Asian countries in 1998 in that asymmetries between U.S. as a debtor with key currency privilege and other debtors without the original fortune are observed. It is further noticed that the present asymmetries would be alleviated only when U.S. becomes even bigger debtor with the crisis not only to other nations but to itself. The agglomeration effect may exert more leverage effect in the context of the on-going volatile credit crunches and consumer ones which may be doomed to prevail in the forthcoming decade. This is because nobody knows exactly to what extent the outside money has been come into being and circulated due to the widespread activities of private equities and hedge funds since the early 1980s as compared with the conventional monetary total which can be matched by the asset of central banks. Such extra international liquidities, somehow, have bridged the trade and budget deficits of the U.S. for nearly three decades. The U.S. has endeavored to launch FTA with the Northeast Asian countries with an aim of sterilizing the massive movement of Chinese exports toward Eastern direction as well as increasing its exports and FDI to this region. The emerging regionalism in Northeast Asia seems to steer its direction for setting up a defensive mode, e.g., the swap agreements on foreign exchange reserves and petroleum buffer stocks at the initial stage. It may shift toward the mode of a preemptive initiative in trade and investment as well as common energy policy if they successfully reach an overall consensus to accommodate federal elements. The agreement of the ASEAN plus three in May 2009 to expand the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) fund up to the amount of 120 billion US dollars may interpreted as an intermediate level between the defensive and preemptive mode. As pointed out by Hwang and Andreosso-OCallaghan (2009, p 65), it may be rather imperative for Northeast Asia to reinforce the processes of energy cooperation and economic integration simultaneously if one fully takes into account of the development strategy of the European Coal and Steel Community. It is gathered that both entrepreneurs and policy-makers around the world in 2009 are ready to reinforce a combination package of corporate strategy and public policy to pursue more effective global and/or regional marketing in the context of the complicated mixture of globalization, regionalism and sporadic government interventions. Under these circumstances, the strategic approach plays critically important role of shaping national or regional competitive edges because such an approach to FTA is formulated not only by those factors of trade, FDI and technology acquisition and diffusion but also by the new added elements such as industrial adjustment policy, R&D policy, human resource development, and international relations. There has emerged a cut-throat competition in the petro-chemical and steel-related industries due to the increase in the excess capacity around the world. China attaches high priorities for enhancing industrial structure of petro-chemical and steel industries. Hwang and Andreosso-OCallaghan (2009, pp. 76-79) illustrate that China has already captured the up-stream of petro-chemical industry by purchasing the oil field and refinery plants in Iran, Central Asia and Latin America. All three leading national enterprises of China, CNPC, CNOOC and SINOPEC, have endeavored to explore the energy sources around the world with a full collaboration with the summit meetings. The self-sufficiency ratios for oil of Korea and China in 2006 were 3.2 per cent and 26.0 per cent respectively (IEA, 2007). Despite having kept a revealed comparative advantage wit China, the share of Korean exports in the Chinese petrochemical market had been shrank from 26.1 per cent to 18.0 per cent over the period of 2001-2005 (Hwang, 2006). The implementation of ADs by China on the petro-chemical and steel-related items may be a transitory phase of the Chinese industrial policy until these industries procure competitive edges by achieving technology acquisition and diffusion in the near future. It is also expected that these industries replace the imports of raw materials and intermediate goods by further carrying out import substitution industrialization. It may be necessary for Korea to formulate a long-range planning in the industrial adjustment policy in order to enhance its competitive edge without incurring unduly high frictional cost of trade disputes with China. The intra-industry specialization has become more important if one fully perceives the critical importance of maintaining the core competencies which are shaped by the effective amalgamation on the economies of scale, product differentiation and architectural capability as exhibited in the fortification of vertical integration by building steel plants near the iron ore mining sites (Park, Huh and Lee, 2008). The exploration and capitalization of the steel mines or oil fields have become indispensable ingredients for increasing the leverages of market power of relevant firms. China is far ahead of Korea in capturing the up-stream of petroleum, natural gas and steel industries. The drastic decline in trade surplus with China indicates that China may have successfully reduced or closed the technology gap with Korea. China has not only reduced such a technology gap with for the textile and clothing industry, and steel industry with Korea but also fortified its price competitiveness on these items by transforming itself into the formidable global champion in terms of plant sizes and cost reductions. Park (2007) points out that China has taken over Korea in the realms of the IT industry in the EU market with price competitiveness. It is also anticipated that China may successfully catch-up with the automobile ancillary and petro-chemical industries unless Korean entrepreneurs formulate and reinforces their corporate strategies for enhancing core competencies in the niche markets. The intra-industry specialization plays critically important role in the RTA in parallel with the fast pace of widening and enlargement of RTA like the EU. It may be an ideal solution for both nations to strengthen intra-industry specialization for the case of automobile industry by sharing their specialization realms in production activities, R&D ones and marketing strategies on the basis of potential competitive advantages. 2. SWOT Analysis on the Automobile Industry The global automobile market has been overhauling by the dominant market positioning of Japanese automobile industry and the eroding competitive edge of the US automobile industry since the early 2000. Toyota became the world champion by taking over GM on the global market in 2005. Another development may be the increased importance of the Northeast Asia in terms of production and consumption boosted by the automobile industries of China and Korea. The Hyundai automobile group has implemented global marketing strategy gradually by carrying out FDI in China, India and Slovakia, but its pace and scale of global marketing is still lagging behind as compared with the global leaders. Despite having achieved its face pace of improving cost reductions and yield rates, it has to make a further progress in bridging or closing the wedge in brand equity with the Japanese counterpart whose major ingredients are the technology innovation, corporate social responsibility and the relationship with interest groups. The automobile industry of China is in such a position of enhancing its competitive edge by making use of its expanding domestic market. It can also enhance its technology capabilities and marketing know-how by making use of the joint-venture companies with the global leaders in automobile industry. Under the present circumstances of global financial crisis and unstable world market, it may be necessary for both Korea and China to pursue their corporate strategies and public policies which allows them to accrue the agglomeration effect between market expansion and technological innovation. The SWOT analysis of Table 3 is drafted to formulate corporate strategy of Korean automobile firms to materialize such an agglomeration. [Table 3] SWOT Analysis on Motorcar Industry of Korea and China S K Technology independence from MNEs and accumulation of production technology Price competitiveness by reducing production cost through the realization of economies of scale and learning-by-doing Feasible production on the local demand with competitive advantage as a result of foreign direct investment with optimal scale Fortified market positioning boosted by quality improvementC Expanding domestic market with a fast pace Availability of abundant labor with low wage rates and the almost unlimited expansion of domestic demand Joint-ventures with the leading global MNEs Procurement of energy resources abroadWK Relatively high defective rates and poor quality of after-service as compared with the Japanese counterparts Low rate of penetration into the niche market due the vulnerable capability of marketing survey Sluggish progress in making a flexible adjustment towards the changing patterns in technology innovation and market positioning High dependency ratio of imports of core components due to the slow progress in technology acquisition and innovation Relatively low total productivity due to the unsettled implementation of flexible management system Low utilization ratio caused by the frequent changes in new models Hostile labor relations which works as one of deterrent factors for autonomy of managementC High dependency ratio of core components abroad due to vulnerable technology, low level of quality and the immature stage of in-house technology capabilities Cut-throat competition and diseconomies of scale due to the numerous entries of small firms below the minimum efficient scale Slow progress in developing independent business models and relatively low accumulation of their own operation performance Widening technology gap with the leading MNEsOK Located in the feasible contour of making innovation in product and management know-how if motorcar firms successfully amalgamate technology and merchandizing Located in the possible zone of increasing the value-added and agglomeration effect if the relevant firms successfully realize the cumulative causation effect between the expanding market and in-house technology capabilities Expansion of the China and Southeast Asia markets which exhibit high growth rates Boosted marketing in parallel with the improved brand equity of the Korean motorcar firms Possible activation of marketing and outsourcing on those countries located around the Silk Road by making use of the advertisement of the cultural heritage of KoreaC A possible acceleration of technological innovation boosted by the enhancement of in-house technological capabilities based on the strong foundation of basic science Increased possibility of ancillary items with lower price tags by making use of the trend of global outsourcing Proximity with the Southeast Asia which has latent potential for high growth rates Participation on the global supply chain of ancillary items by making use of their FDI into China and the consequent possibility of exerting increased market powerTK Vulnerable network between motorcar and ancillary firms Possible discrepancies between marketing and R&D activities due to the immature stage of localization Backlash effect on the preservation of core technology and in-house R&D capabilities due to the deindustrialization facilitated by the expansion of production abroadC Conflicts with the foreign investing firms with respect with the corporate governance Increase in the imported motorcar boosted by trade liberalization Dramatic up-surge of new technologies related to motorcar industry Possible deindustrialization of domestic motorcar industry by the fast expansion of foreign affiliates via FDI Contingent possibility of encountering financial crisis on the process of resolving the bad-debt assetSource: drafted by Dr. Chul Cho of KIET and Hae-du Hwang of SEI 3. Trade Specialization Index (TSI) of Ancillary Industry The estimation of TSI of automobile industry for capturing the evolving comparative advantages between Korea and China may be misleading because a substantial portion of Chinese output has been delivered to the domestic market. The activities and performances of automobile exports are quite recent phenomena. But China has become one of major producers of ancillary items and heavily involved for export activities, thus, the TSI of ancillary industry of Table 4 can be used as a rough gauge for tracing out the evolving comparative advantage between China and Korea. The ancillary industry plays important role for evaluating the competitive edges of automobile industry. This trend has been fortified due to the application of module production since the early 1990s. Acquino (1978) explains that the TSI of a specific item can be estimated by dividing the difference of export or import amounts of this item with other nation by the summation of export and import amounts. Table 4 demonstrates that there exist significant scopes of intra-industry specialization in the ancillary industry by categorizing the complementary or substitute functions of ancillary items on the basis of the TSI divergences or convergences. It is also found that the Chinese ancillary industry has improved its comparative advantage with a fast pace over the observed period. It is noticeable that both countries are rather sluggish in improving their global market position of high value-added items such as gear boxes and clutches. The automobile and its ancillary industries may be suitable industries to accrue the agglomeration effect by making use of FDI for the joint research or global marketing. The FDI flows between Korea and China may be reduced at the initial stage of KCFTA because the incentives to circumvent the tariff barriers are dwindled due to the tariff exemption or reductions. But it may be quite possible to make a reverse movement against this initial negative impulse if the combined effects of liberalization procedures of service sector and FDI eclipse the effects of tariff reductions. The Korean firms of manufacturing and service sector may successfully capture such a pivotal momentum to increase their business activities and FDI in an improved business climate of increased legal stability. It can be, thus, gathered that such a paradigm shift may contribute for the enhancement of competitive edges of Korean and Chinese manufacturing and service sectors alike. [Table 4] Comparison of TSI between Korea and China in Ancillary Industry CommodityKoreas TSI to WorldChinas TSI to World20022004200620082002200420062008Bodies for motor vehicles0.9880.9820.9380.673-0.987-0.884-0.9930.940Bodies for other vehicles0.9840.9510.9500.565-0.4380.678-0.9740.937Bumpers and parts of the motor vehicles0.290-0.1480.1570.376-0.346-0.413-0.9980.185Safety seat belts-0.960-0.767-0.509-0.248-0.0080.131-0.9980.584Gear boxes-0.924-0.831-0.789-0.635-0.807-0.939-1.000-0.778Drive-axles with differential0.4840.5290.4160.077-0.745-0.602-0.9980.256Suspension shock-absorbers-0.2080.4330.5750.320-0.352-0.056-0.9950.423Clutches and parts thereof, of the motor vehicles0.3960.3880.3650.3740.3590.362-0.9960.368Vehicles of parts, steering wheels, steering columns0.1410.4530.5680.209-0.863-0.740-0.999-0.248Source: estimated by the author by making use of data for the KITA N.B: The ancillary classification is based on the HS8707. 4. Corporate Strategy and Public Policy for Materializing Agglomeration Effect It may be required for Korea and China to prepare an overall configuration of cooperation roadmap for developing the intra-industry specialization towards production sharing. Such endeavor may allow the development and expansion of specialized fields by extending the time and space horizons without incurring the volatile negative impulses of credit or consumer crunches. It may be ideal to cooperate in regional or global marketing and to have a joint research programs to appropriate the positive spillover effects from the joint R&D. The Beijing affiliate of Hyundai motorcar group has achieved its aims of increasing its shares in the Beijing taxi market in 2008 while transferring the product and production technology of medium-sized car models on which it had accumulated the relevant core technology independently. The corporate strategy plays an important role in the monopolistic market which is featured by the product differentiation and learning-by-doing. Proponents of new economic geography also posit that the corporate strategy will resume critically important role in parallel with the realization of the cumulative causation effect between technology and market expansion. It may be highly improbable for the Korean and Chinese automobile firms to fortify their brand equities if they fail to reach a tacit agreement to promote intra-industry specialization. Such a pattern of cooperation with mutual consultation may contribute for curtailing their excess capacities by incurring the minimal frictional cost. The strategy of combining the marketing know-how, R&D and finance also plays important roles as a means of avoiding the chasm marketing for those products which requires a huge R&D expenses with short product life cycles. It may be also equally important to operate competitive intelligence for the technology roadmap and marketing strategy of rivalry firms for achieving a dynamic efficiency. The public policy from the perspective of the NEG, attaches its utmost importance on nurturing for the provision of infra-structure for inducing a sequence of technology innovation. Such a public policy differs from those policies based on the balanced growth theory or unbalanced growth theory which emphasize the external effects of providing social overhead capital or the linkage effects with the up or down-stream activities. It also differs from the industrial policy which restrains the collusive activities with the anti-trust policy by analyzing the structure, conduct and performance because its stance is to nurture the overall business environment for boosting a sequence of technology innovation for market expansion. The public policy of Korea toward automobile industry is required to focus on intra-industry specialization which aims at for the alleviation of overlapping industrial capacity and the enhancement of global marketing capability. The backbones for such an intra-industry specialization are the joint R&D activities, pooling human resource development and management and the reinforcement of intellectual property right on industrial innovation. Such a need for intra-industry specialization becomes more acute if one fully admits that the long run competitive edges of a nation or economic bloc may be largely determined by the different development stages of the national or economic bloc system of industrial innovation. Put this in another way, the polarized version of malfunctioned public policies between Korea and China may be ended up with the increase in excess capacities and the increased redundancies of labor forces caused by the misalignment of manpower policy which impairs the competitive edges and market positioning in the global market. The Myth of the Asias Miracle of Krugman (1994) can be one of the typical cases of pointing out such a polarized version of extensive pattern of growth. Both Korea and China are shifting toward the intensive one but the pace is rather sluggish in the up-market and technology-intensive service industries. It is recommended for both nations to resolve the pending issues in international relations and collective defense system which have worked as one of impediment factors of making a further expansion of trade, investment and technology cooperation. It is also suggested from the deepening, widening and enlargement of the EU that a federal RTA may be more effective in achieving the industrial and technology cooperation. One possible way of making progress in this realm comprises the comprehensive FTA which can be the cornerstone of developing the frontiers of public economics or public law by distilling the federal attributes of economic integration. The improved market positioning of Airbus in 2003 and in 2004 as compared with the Boeing or the Lisbon Strategy which aims at facilitating the knowledge-based economy for the period 2000-1010 well exemplify such cases. The Lisbon strategy of the EU aims at reducing the digital divide with the United States, thus, it can be interpreted as an extension of common industrial and technology policy in order to achieve high economic growth rates as well as accommodating the European Social Model. V. Concluding Remarks This research analyzes the economic effect of KCFTA in the context of a multi-track trade policy. The purpose is to formulate corporate strategy and public policy as a way to increase consumer welfare and enhance the industrial structure of Korea. A salient facet of this research may be its attempt to amalgamate the regional trade agreement and the NEG, shedding light on the critical importance of the agglomeration effect and intra-industry specialization for the adjustment process towards the launch of KCFTA. It also traces out the new attributes of the FTA which exhibits a full accommodation of FDI, the liberalization of service sector and the preemptive movement for capturing expanding foreign markets. It covers as well the important role of corporate strategy as a means of achieving product differentiation by facilitating R&D and marketing activities. Most previous studies on the KCFTA at the aggregate level show that Korea may accrue some positive effect from the creation of trade and dynamic gains in the technology intensive manufacturing sector. They also demonstrate that small and medium-sized firms and the agricultural sector of Korea may suffer from the negative effects of high industrial adjustment costs. The positive effects for Korea may go away due to the high ratio of processed patterns of trade with China. This research keeps a certain distance from the previous studies, which emphasize welfare gains without fully taking into account the process of industrial adjustment. Instead it attaches the utmost importance on the attempt to cooperate at the intra-industry level specialization with China. The competitive edge of the automobile industry is primarily determined by the blend of capital, technology, brand equity, and marketing. With its production and architectural technology, the Korean automobile industry is in a position to transfer the relevant technologies for medium-sized vehicles to its Chinese counterpart at competitive prices because it has successfully accumulated generic technology in this area. The Chinese automobile industry could successfully achieve a great leap-forward in the spheres of product technology and marketing know-how by taking full advantage of its strategic alliance with global leaders. The Korean counterpart may provide the production technology at a competitive price. A competitive advantage analysis based on the SWOT model demonstrates that there are ample scopes of mutual cooperation between China and Korea. The intra-industry specialization in the ancillary industry, in which Korea specializes in technology-intensive items whereas China focuses on labor-intensive ones, exemplifies such a typical case of corporate strategy at present. It is also required to adopt public policy that nurtures the human resource development and the R&D capabilities as a means of accruing some synergistic effect from intra-industry specialization. Such a combined approach of corporate strategy and public policy may be effective in reducing the inherent uncertainties arising from the R&D and global marketing activities in the volatile economic climate exacerbated by the global financial crisis of 2008. This article highlights the possibility of amalgamating the new economic geography and economic integration at a toddlers stage. The empirical verification at the industry specific level seems to be beyond the scope of this research because it requires enormous endeavors of setting up econometric model and collecting the relevant raw data at the sector specific levels. It is hoped that the forthcoming research will resume this unfinished work. [References] Amiti, Mary, 2005, Location of vertically linked industries: agglomeration versus comparative advantage, European Economic Review, Vol. 49, No. 4,pp. 809-832. Aquino, Antonio, 1978, Intra-industry trade and inter-industry specialization as concurrent sources of International Trade in manufactures, Review of World Economics, Vol. 114, No. 2, pp. 275-296. Audretsch. David B., 1998, Agglomeration and the Location of innovative activity, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 18-29. Chambers, Michael R., The Chinese and the Thais are Brothers: the evolution of the Sino-Thai friendship, Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 14, No. 45, pp. 599-629. Cowling, Keith and Roger Suden, 1996, Capacity, Transnationals, and Industrial Strategy, in Creating Industrial Capacity, eds. Miche, Jonathan and John G. Smith, Oxford, Oxford University, pp. 209-307. Duranton, Gilles and Michael Storper, 2006, Agglomeration and growth: a dialogue between economists and geographers, Journal of Geography, Vol. 6, pp. 1-7. Hwang, Yoon-jin, 2006, Industrial Adjustment of Korean Petrochemical Industry toward the Development Strategy of China, KIET Issue Paper 2006-212, KIET, Seoul. [In Korean] Hwang, Hae-du and Xiangshou Yin, 2008, Recent Development of RTA in North East Asia. Asia Europe Journal. Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 455-466. Hwang, Hae-du and Bernadette Andreosso-oCallaghan, 2009, Energy Cooperation and Emerging Regionalism in North-East Asia: Relative Impact on APEC and ASEM in Terms of Inter-Regionalism, Journal of Korea Trade, Vol.13, No. 1 pp. 65-88. Krugman, Paul, 2004, The Myth of Asias Miracle, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 62-78. Lee, Chon-Pyo, 2009, Notable Features of 2008 Financial Crisis and Directions of Adjustment by the Korean Economy, Seoul Journal of Economics, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 181-215. Lee, Hyun-hoon, 2007, Impact of Liberalization of Service Sector on the Economic Growth and Productivity, Economic Development Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 67-94. [In Korean] Lee, Jang-kyu, Ingu Lee, Jina Yeo and Hyunjun Cho, 200, FTA Strategy of China and Its Policy Implication, Research Report 06-01, KIEP, Seoul. [In Korean] Lee, Hanggu, Cho, Chul, Lee, Youngju and Kyungyu Kim, 2004, The Shift of Global Position of Chinese Motorcar Industry and the Cooperation Road Map in Automobile Industry between Korea and China, Research Report 04-12, KIET, Seoul. [In Korean] Palley, Thomas I., 2006, External Contradictions of the Chinese Development Model: export-led growth and the dangers of global economic contraction, Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 15, No. 46, pp. 69-88. Park, Hynngsung, Huh, Jin-seok, and Sanggyu Lee, 2008, Recent Features and Prospect of Investment Patterns to Steel Capacity Expansion, POSRI CEO Report 08-07, POSCO Management Research Center, Seoul. [In Korean] Park, Pil-jae, 2008, Comparative Analysis on the Export Competitiveness among Korea, China and Japan in the EU market, Research Report 08-07, Korea International Trade Association, Seoul [In Korean] Yang, PyoungSeob, ChangKyu Lee, Hyunjeng Park, Jina Yeo, SengBin Pae and HyunJun Cho, 2007, Characteristics of the Trade between Korea and China and the Implications for a Korea-China FTA, Research Report 07-08, KIEP, Seoul. [In Korean] IEA, Annual Report of Oil Corporation of Major Nations, 2007  The cabinet research center of China and Korea International Economic Policy Institute resumed this task and the final report is scheduled to be published by the end of 2009  Taiwan also became the Signatory of WTO at the same time.  China also has launched the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement which is the outgrowth of Bangkok Agreement with the ASEAN.  China sometimes make light of the economic aspects of FTA. It may want to improve its relative position or influence on the Southeast Asia..  This refers to the HS 8-digit MFN applied average tariff rates of China.  Most AD duties levied on Korean manufactures by the EU have been the household electronic goods.  Korean International Trade Association, http://stat.kita.net  This may be stemmed from the on-going phenomenon that the Chinese financial system is rather immune to the global financial crisis and its contagion due to its firm grip on capital movements and the big accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.  The main reasons for the cost differences are the relatively cheap wage rates and virtually no rental cost for cultivating the land.  The abolition of the ceilings on representative office numbers of foreign law firms and the numbers of lawyers well exemplify such cases.  This failure may be stemmed from the special attribute of FDI channeled into developing countries which can be interpreted as an extension of the North-South problems between the investing and hosting countries  The outside money is the net liability of central bank to other economic agents whereas the inside money is the liability of central bank exactly offset by the asset of central bank. .  The CMI refers to a network of bilateral swap agreements created by ASEAN plus Three in May 2000 as a means of providing shot-term liquidity assistance.  Toyota of Japan may be the global champion in this aspect.  The chasm marketing refers to such cases in which producers fail to realize cash flows which may be sufficient to cover the sunk cost of R&D and marketing expenses due to the wedge between R&D and marketing.      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