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Intention to create an easy to understand analytical checklist on likely impact of specific RTA to help relax that constraint three key elements looking at the details of the agreement - check list of the likely elements and their implications 6 rules of thumb based on descriptive statistics to assess likely impact of shallow integration on balance of trade diversion and trade creation likely indicators for the potential for deep integrationЁ.фZ.Zф.ѓŸЈthe qualitative issuesŸЈŠobjective to check-off and analyse the actual content of any proposed agreement in a systematic way that reveals what is in and what is out the extent of proposed liberalisation and any exceptions remaining regulatory barriers and the elements of deep integration proposed how it interacts with existing agreements including WTO potential for impact on particularly politically sensitive groupsЁ.qZZqѓ ŸЈ(Initial conditions - shallow integrationŸЈsummary of economic structure measures of initial comparative advantage - RCA trade shares by source price dispersion - unit value differences among sources similarity and differences in export structure across partners - Finger -Kreinen similarity in production structures trade intensity indexes trade propensity indices herfindahl indices tariff and non tariff barriers - averages and peaks Framework describes the statistical indicators and how to calculate them from easily available and cheap sources (notably WITS and TRAINS databases) Ё Z CЊ,цV гѓŸЈ*Shallow Integration - some rules of thumb ŸЈЩrules of thumb The effects will be greater the higher are the initial tariffs. The greater the number of RTA partners the more likely it is that there will be trade creation as opposed to trade diversion. Wide differences in comparative advantage likely to lead to a welfare improving RTA provided the initial tariffs are not too high. The more similar is the product mix in the economies concerned and the higher the elasticities of supply the more likely there is to be Trade Creation The higher the percentage of trade with potential partners the more likely the RTA is to be welfare enhancing. if trade is initially a small share of GNP, an RTA can be considered more likely to be welfare improving. 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